According to a new cross-border travel survey from Nanos Research, more than 4 in 10 Canadians say they’re even less likely this year vs. last year to vacation in the U.S. – and another 4 in 10 Canadians say they’re not vacationing south of the border in general.

Data from the Nanos poll, commissioned by CTV News, included 43% of Canadians who said they’re less likely to vacation stateside this year, and another 38% who answered ‘Not vacation to the U.S. in general’ when asked about the chances of booking a U.S. getaway for 2026.

Some 14% said their likelihood of a U.S. vacation was the same as last year, while 4% said they were likely to head south of the border more, not less, in 2026. Another 2% were unsure.

For many Canadians, “the U.S. is not on the radar in terms of a travel destination,” Nik Nanos told CTV. The telephone and online poll took place March 1 – 8.

The Nanos poll also indicated that the 2026 vacation budget will be steady YOY for almost half (46%) of Canadians; 20% said they were looking to spend less on getaways, while 22% said they’ll be spending more.

The February 2026 cross-border travel numbers from Statistics Canada, reported earlier this week, show a 13% YOY decrease in Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. by car, and a 17.6% drop in returning Canadian-resident trips from the U.S. by air.

At first glance, these latest year-over-year drops for Canada-to-U.S. travel aren’t too bad – but most likely that’s because we’re now more than a year into the declines.

Overall, Canadian-resident return trips from the U.S. by air and car was 1.5 million in February 2026. That’s down 14.5% compared to February 2025 – and a decline of 31.5% compared to February 2024.

Unpredictable times can make for unpredictable travel patterns, however. As reported today, with Cuba temporarily sidelined, and with some travellers still skirting Mexico after the violence in Puerto Vallarta, March Break winners include the D.R. – and Florida.